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Recent advances in topological mechanics have revealed unusual phenomena such as topologically protected floppy modes and states of self-stress that are exponentially localized at boundaries and interfaces of mechanical networks. In this paper, we explore the topological mechanics of epithelial tissues, where the appearance of these boundary and interface modes could lead to localized soft or stressed spots and play a role in morphogenesis. We consider both a simple vertex model (VM) governed by an effective elastic energy and its generalization to an active tension network (ATN) which incorporates active adaptation of the cytoskeleton. By analyzing spatially periodic lattices at the Maxwell point of mechanical instability, we find topologically polarized phases with exponential localization of floppy modes and states of self-stress in the ATN when cells are allowed to become concave, but not in the VM. 

Traces from single-molecule fluorescence microscopy (SMFM) experiments exhibit photophysical artifacts that typically necessitate human expert screening, which is time-consuming and introduces potential for user-dependent expectation bias. Here, we use deep learning to develop a rapid, automatic SMFM trace selector, termed AutoSiM, that improves the sensitivity and specificity of an assay for a DNA point mutation based on single-molecule recognition through equilibrium Poisson sampling (SiMREPS). The improved performance of AutoSiM is based on accepting both more true positives and fewer false positives than the conventional approach of hidden Markov modeling (HMM) followed by hard thresholding. As a second application, the selector is used for automated screening of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) data to identify high-quality traces for further analysis, and achieves ~90% concordance with manual selection while requiring less processing time. Finally, we show that AutoSiM can be adapted readily to novel datasets, requiring only modest Transfer Learning.

 

Abstract Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages. 

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.